High Resolution Wave Forecasting for Protecting Coastal Monuments

EasyChair Preprint 15910

Abstract

The protection of coastal monuments from wave-induced damage is increasingly urgent as climate change accelerates sea level rise and intensifies storms. Historical structures, such as Venetian fortresses and coastal walls, are highly vulnerable to wave energy, overtopping, and inundation, compromising their structural integrity and cultural significance. High-resolution wave forecasting is essential for assessing risks and developing effective mitigation measures. This study integrates high-resolution numerical modeling to analyze wave propagation, energy dissipation, and overtopping hazards affecting the Koules Fortress and Heraklion’s coastal Venetian walls extending to Dermatas Bay. Using the SWAN wave model, dynamically downscaled to spatial resolution of 50 by 50 meters, simulations were performed under present and future climate scenarios to evaluate wave dynamics and their impact on these historical structures. The model operates daily, providing real-time assessments of overtopping hazards and supporting early warning systems for coastal management. The analysis incorporates changing wind regimes and storm intensities based on climate projections, highlighting an increase in both wind speeds and the frequency of unfavorable wind directions that exacerbate wave hazards. Modeling results indicate that without intervention, overtopping rates and structural stress will exceed acceptable thresholds, endangering both the monuments and surrounding infrastructure. By integrating high-resolution wave forecasting with vulnerability assessment, this study provides a management framework for safeguarding coastal heritage sites. The proposed methodologies support data-driven risk evaluation and adaptive strategies to ensure the long-term resilience of these cultural treasures against evolving coastal hazards.

Keyphrases: Koules Fortress, SWAN model, coastal monuments, high-resolution wave models, port infrastucture

@booklet{EasyChair:15910,
  author    = {Vassiliki Metheniti and Antonios Parasyris and George Alexandrakis and George Kozyrakis and Nikolaos Kampanis},
  title     = {High Resolution Wave Forecasting for Protecting Coastal Monuments},
  howpublished = {EasyChair Preprint 15910},
  year      = {EasyChair, 2025}}